{"id":1692,"date":"2022-07-06T13:34:02","date_gmt":"2022-07-06T13:34:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/?p=1692"},"modified":"2023-11-06T14:57:58","modified_gmt":"2023-11-06T14:57:58","slug":"how-much-product-discovery","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/how-much-product-discovery\/","title":{"rendered":"How Much Product Discovery Is Enough?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>A common question I get is when it is ok to stop validating a product idea and switch to delivery. It\u2019s a natural question given the pressure product teams face to execute and launch. It&#8217;s also an important question. If we stop too early we may end up launching a bad idea (we&#8217;ve all been there). If we overdo validation we may waste time and resources with no real benefit.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To answer the question I\u2019ll use the the <a href=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/resources\/confidence-meter-calculator\/\">Confidence Meter<\/a>, the tool I created to translate evidence into a <a href=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/the-tool-that-will-help-you-choose-better-product-ideas\/\">confidence score<\/a>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"677\" data-src=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Confidence-Meter-No-CC-1024x677.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1599 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Confidence-Meter-No-CC-1024x677.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Confidence-Meter-No-CC-300x198.jpg 300w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Confidence-Meter-No-CC-768x508.jpg 768w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Confidence-Meter-No-CC-1536x1016.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Confidence-Meter-No-CC-scaled.jpg 1200w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/677;\" \/><noscript><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"677\" src=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Confidence-Meter-No-CC-1024x677.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1599\" srcset=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Confidence-Meter-No-CC-1024x677.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Confidence-Meter-No-CC-300x198.jpg 300w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Confidence-Meter-No-CC-768x508.jpg 768w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Confidence-Meter-No-CC-1536x1016.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Confidence-Meter-No-CC-scaled.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/noscript><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>To make things simpler, I\u2019m going to split the confidence scale into four categories of evidence: <em>Opinions<\/em>, <em>Assessment<\/em>, <em>Data<\/em>, and <em>Tests Results<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"779\" data-src=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Conf-Meter-Quads--1024x779.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1693 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Conf-Meter-Quads--1024x779.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Conf-Meter-Quads--300x228.jpg 300w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Conf-Meter-Quads--768x584.jpg 768w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Conf-Meter-Quads--scaled.jpg 1200w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/779;\" \/><noscript><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"779\" src=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Conf-Meter-Quads--1024x779.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1693\" srcset=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Conf-Meter-Quads--1024x779.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Conf-Meter-Quads--300x228.jpg 300w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Conf-Meter-Quads--768x584.jpg 768w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Conf-Meter-Quads--scaled.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/noscript><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>If you&#8217;re short for time, here\u2019s the TL;DR:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>Never launch anything solely based on opinions<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>It\u2019s ok to release minor tweaks based on assessment<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Having supporting data (without testing) is enough to launch only very small, low-risk, easy-to-revert changes<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Everything else should be validated through tests and experiments. However there are various levels of testing to choose from with different associated costs and confidence levels.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>How much validation you need depends on: a) the cost of building the idea in full b)how risky it is c) your risk tolerance.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Let\u2019s see the details.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Opinions (Confidence Level &lt;= 0.1 out of 10)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>This form of evidence is based on the self conviction of a single person or a small group of like-minded people (who aren\u2019t the intended user). There\u2019s usually some convincing logic behind the idea, and it may be \u201csupported\u201d by some current theme. For example this idea is good because it\u2019s about the Web3, because it strongly aligns with our company strategy, or because Gartner expects the market to grow to $5 trillion in 5 years.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Which ideas should we launch solely based on opinions<\/strong>: <em>None.<\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While the idea may seem well-substantiated to its originators, it\u2019s really just a matter of their opinions and beliefs. Opinions have been shown time and again to be very weak and unreliable forms of evidence, even when they come from experts or seasoned executives. No one has a crystal ball, and even small changes can cause issues. At the very least we want to venture into the next quadrant of evidence \u2014 assessment.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n<div id=\"thrive-\" class=\"thrv_wrapper thrv_symbol thrive-shortcode thrv_ tve_no_drag thrv_symbol_2536\" data-id=\"2536\" data-selector=\".thrv_symbol_2536\" data-shortcode=\"thrive_\" data-tcb-elem-type=\"\" data-element-name=\"\"><div class=\"thrive-shortcode-html thrive-symbol-shortcode \" data-symbol-id=\"2536\"><style class='tve-symbol-custom-style'>@import url(\"\/\/fonts.googleapis.com\/css?family=Montserrat:400,400i,300,300i,600,600i,200,200i,500,500i,700,700i&subset=latin\");@media (min-width: 300px){.thrv_symbol_2536 [data-css=\"tve-u-18b38d9fd75\"]{max-width: 950px;float: none;z-index: 3;position: relative;--tve-alignment: center;display: block;padding: 10px 30px !important;margin-left: auto !important;margin-right: auto !important;}.thrv_symbol_2536 [data-css=\"tve-u-18b38d9fd7a\"]{border-radius: 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value=\"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\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"tve_mapping\" name=\"tve_mapping\" value=\"YTowOnt9\"><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"tve_labels\" name=\"tve_labels\" value=\"YToxOntzOjU6ImVtYWlsIjtzOjEzOiJFbWFpbCBhZGRyZXNzIjt9\"><\/form> <\/div> <\/div><\/div> <\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Assessment (0.1 &lt; Confidence Level \u2266 0.5)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Assessment is about analyzing the idea deeper and with input from more people. Common forms of assessment include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>ICE analysis &#8211; Estimating Impact, Confidence and Ease&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Projections and business models \u2014 Using back-of the envelope calculations, business model canvas, and other forms of business\/tech analysis to refine our estimates of impact and ease.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Risk analysis \u2014 For example through <a href=\"https:\/\/www.precoil.com\/assumptions-mapping\">assumption mapping<\/a> (for reference consider <a href=\"https:\/\/www.svpg.com\/four-big-risks\/\">Cagan\u2019s Four Big Risks<\/a>)&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Reviews \u2014 Including peer reviews, expert reviews, management reviews, and stakeholder reviews.&nbsp;It\u2019s best if these reviews are well structured with a clear agenda and review criteria. Some reviews are best done one-on-one. Importantly, the goal is to get feedback on the idea, not drive decision-by-comittee.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Assessment is still based on opinions and guesses, but we evaluate the idea in a more structured and objective way, and hear more points of view. Often this is enough to surface major flaws in the idea, or to show that it is weaker than other candidate ideas we have. It\u2019s definitely ok to park an idea based on assessment.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Which ideas should we launch solely based on initial assessment?<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Assessment without outside data is a very weak form of evidence and can easily send us down the wrong path. The only ideas to consider launching with no further validation, are ones that are:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>Very cheap to implement<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Very low risk&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Create minor\/no change to user experience&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Easy to reverse with no permanent damage (eg no service outage or irreversible data loss)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Examples:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>UI tweaks \u2014 Color palette changes, changing the order in the settings page, minor redesigns of less-used parts of the UI<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Minor functionality enhancements \u2014 A new field in the feedback form, a new user-selected template, new advanced search options.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Small algorithm changes that theoretically don\u2019t affect user experience&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Data (0.5 &lt; Confidence Level \u2266 3)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Assessment helps us understand an idea on a deeper level, but it has limited power without outside data.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Data can come from:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>Customer\/user requests<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Customer\/user interviews<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Field studies&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Log and usage data&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Competitive research<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Market research&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Surveys&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Other sources<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>(Sidenote: all the validation techniques I mention in this article are covered in my free eBook: <a href=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/resources\/idea-testing-ebook\/\">Testing Product Ideas Handbook<\/a>).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As we gather data we have to differentiate between <em>anecdotal data<\/em> and <em>market data<\/em>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li><em>Anecdotal data<\/em> (Confidence Level of 1.0 or less) comes from a small set of data points: 1-3 users\/customers expressing interest in a feature, a one-of sales request, one competitor has a similar feature implemented.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>Market data<\/em> (Confidence Level between 1.0 and 3.0) comes from larger datasets. For example, if we\u2019re considering the idea of supporting High Dynamic Range (HDR) video ads in our ad platform, the following facts can be considered supporting market data:<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>13 out of 20 potential customers we interviewed rated HDR-support as very important in their choice of video platform<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>68% of consumer devices support HDR video<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>3 out of 11 competitors have HDR support; 4 more have it on their roadmap<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Which ideas should we fully launch based on supporting data and facts?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Anecdotal data &#8211;<\/strong> Anecdotal data shows that at least someone outside the building thinks this is a good idea, but because of the small sample it can also be just random noise. It&#8217;s a very unreliable source of evidence, which we tend to rely on way too often (especially when it supports our opinions). We should use anecdotal evidence to OK just very low-effort, very low-risk ideas. &nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Market data<\/strong> &#8211; Market data mostly tells us there\u2019s a demand for <em>a<\/em> solution, but it teaches us very little about our specific idea. Ideally we\u2019d like to continue to test the idea, but if we don&#8217;t have the capacity,  these are examples of ideas where it might be ok to take the risk:\n<ul>\n<li>Incremental features that add new functionality (rather than change or subtract), and are unlikely to annoy anyone, for example HDR support<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Redesigns of parts of the UI that users don\u2019t visit often \u2014 e.g. the settings page<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Short-duration, in-product promos and calls-to-action<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Note: launching without testing is actually testing with 100% of users. So after the launch we must track the results very closely and be ready to roll-back or iterate on the idea quickly. We definitely don\u2019t want to bloat the product with features no one uses.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>We learn in-depth how to implement product discovery in my Lean Product Management workshops.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/ti.to\/itamar-gilad-events\/\">Secure your ticket now<\/a>&nbsp;for the next public workshop or&nbsp;<a href=\"mailto:info@itamargilad.com\">contact me<\/a>&nbsp;to organize an in-house workshop for your team.&nbsp;For more info see&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/itamargilad.com\/workshops\">itamargiladcom\/workshops<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tests and Experiments (3 &lt; Confidence Level)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Testing means putting a version of the idea in front of users\/customers and measuring the reactions.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are several sub-types of tests with growing associated costs and levels of confidence:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Early-stage tests<\/strong> use a \u201cfake product\u201d or a prototype before the product is built, for example landing pages, wizards of Oz, concierge services, and prototype usability studies.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Mid-stage tests<\/strong>, for example internal team dogfood, early adopter programs, alpha, real product-based usability tests, use a rough and incomplete version of the idea with a small group of users.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Late-stage tests<\/strong> (e.g. betas, labs, previews) use an almost-complete version of the idea with a larger group of users<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Split tests <\/strong>(e.g. a\/b, multivariate) test complete versions of the idea with lots of users, and include a control element to reduce the odds of false results.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Launch tests<\/strong> use partial roll-outs to test the finished idea on a large scale.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Which Ideas should we launch based on Tests and Experiments<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>You should strive to test almost all of your ideas. The level of testing to use depends on the cost of the idea, the cost of the test, and your tolerance for risk. &nbsp;Here are some rules of thumb (but apply judgment):&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>Early-stage tests may be enough in cases where the only risks you see are about market demand, usability, or pricing sensitivity, and the idea is cheap to build. For example, if we\u2019re redesigning a part of the UI, but keeping all the functionality, a prototype-based usability test may be enough. If we\u2019re planning to re-run last year&#8217;s Black-Friday promotion, but we\u2019re unsure how to price it, we can run a fake door test.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Mid-stage tests&nbsp; help answer questions about value in use, usability, and adoption and usage patterns. These are more expensive tests, and they\u2019re enough to greenlight most medium risk and\/or medium cost ideas. For example: a new core feature, removing or replacing an existing feature, a major redesign, minor new product. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Late-stage tests and launch tests are dress rehearsals before the launch. Use these expensive tests: 1) when the idea is going to affect all\/most users in a big way and you want to ensure it\u2019s bullet-proof, or 2) when some assumptions can only be validated with large amounts of data. Examples include a brand new product, a major revision to an existing product, new pricing scheme, a new API.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Split tests \u2014 Companies like Netflix, Booking.com and AirBnB run every idea, no matter how small, through an A\/B or multivariate experiment. This is good practice that drastically reduces the odds of launching bad ideas. If your capacity to run split tests is more limited, use them for cases where you need quantitative data to validate the assumptions, for example to answer questions like: Will people choose this option? Will we earn more money? Will retention not degrade? Examples include UI design changes, new pricing, and in-product promotions and campaigns&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>When to stop testing is a judgment call. At a minimum we\u2019d like to ensure that our most critical assumptions, the ones that may make the idea useless, are validated. However, aiming for 100% risk-free launches is not possible nor necessary, especially if it\u2019s easy to revert the idea with no major damage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Start Small, Keep Iterating<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In practice we collect evidence of various types and gradually build a better understanding of the idea. We start with cheaper modes of validation (assessment, data gathering, early-stage tests), and move to more expensive ones only if the idea still looks good. Every time we collect new evidence we should reevaluate the idea and decide what to do next. This helps create true build-measure-learn loops, and helps us filter-out bad ideas quickly (Here\u2019s a<a href=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/the-tool-that-will-help-you-choose-better-product-ideas\/\"> full real-world example<\/a> of this process running through multiple validation steps).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"693\" data-src=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Assessment-Validation-loop-1024x693.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1694 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Assessment-Validation-loop-1024x693.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Assessment-Validation-loop-300x203.jpg 300w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Assessment-Validation-loop-768x520.jpg 768w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Assessment-Validation-loop-1536x1040.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Assessment-Validation-loop-scaled.jpg 1200w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/693;\" \/><noscript><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"693\" src=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Assessment-Validation-loop-1024x693.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1694\" srcset=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Assessment-Validation-loop-1024x693.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Assessment-Validation-loop-300x203.jpg 300w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Assessment-Validation-loop-768x520.jpg 768w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Assessment-Validation-loop-1536x1040.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Assessment-Validation-loop-scaled.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/noscript><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>We stop iterating when we feel we have good-enough confidence to either launch the idea or to park it. The confidence meter can show you if you&#8217;ve reached the right <em>level<\/em> of evidence. For example, if the confidence level is below 0.1 you\u2019re relying solely on opinions and should have near-zero confidence in the idea. If it&#8217;s below 1.0, you have only anecdotal evidence. However the confidence level alone can&#8217;t tell you when you&#8217;re good to go <meta charset=\"utf-8\">\u2014 when you&#8217;re striking the right balance of cost\/risk\/reward. I\u2019ve listed some suggestions above, but there\u2019s no simple formula <meta charset=\"utf-8\">\u2014 it\u2019s always a judgment call. 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type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/plugins\/thrive-visual-editor\/editor\/js\/dist\/modules\/modal.min.js?v=3.30\" ><\/script><div class=\"thrv_wrapper thrv-page-section tcb-mobile-hidden tcb-tablet-hidden\" data-inherit-lp-settings=\"1\" data-css=\"tve-u-18b3c8cea3e\" style=\"--tve-border-radius: 0px; border-radius: 0px; --tve-border-width: 0px; border: none;\" tcb-template-name=\"Product Rating 04\" tcb-template-id=\"5efc64ce2c10fe76f2269310\" data-keep-css_id=\"1\" data-form-settings=\"__TCB_FORM__{&quot;form_identifier&quot;:&quot;-form-ld2ktw&quot;}__TCB_FORM__\"><div class=\"tve-page-section-out\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-18b3c8cea3f\" data-tcb_hover_state_parent=\"1\"><\/div><div class=\"tve-page-section-in tve_empty_dropzone \" data-css=\"tve-u-18b3c8cea40\" style=\"\"><div class=\"thrv_wrapper thrv_text_element tcb-mobile-hidden\" data-css=\"tve-u-18b3c8cea4b\" style=\"\"><div class=\"tcb-plain-text\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-18b3ca49ac8\"><strong>My book Evidence-Guided is <a class=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-18b3c9145b8\" href=\"https:\/\/a.co\/d\/d9EVu9G\" rel=\"nofollow\" style=\"outline: none;\" target=\"_blank\">now available<\/a><\/strong><\/div><\/div><div class=\"thrv_wrapper thrv-columns\" data-css=\"tve-u-18b3c8cea41\" style=\"--tcb-col-el-width: 678.011; --tve-border-width: 1px;\"><div class=\"tcb-flex-row v-2 tcb-resized tcb--cols--2\" data-css=\"tve-u-18b3c8cea42\" style=\"\"><div class=\"tcb-flex-col\" data-css=\"tve-u-18b3c991ee6\" style=\"\"><div class=\"tcb-col\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-18b3c999482\"><div class=\"thrv_wrapper thrv_text_element\" style=\"\" data-css=\"tve-u-18b5ba78f67\"><p>From readers:&nbsp;<br><strong> <em>&#8220;The grand unified theory of product management&#8221;, &#8220;Best Practical Product Management Guide&#8221;, &#8220;Must read for seasoned and new product managers&#8221;, &#8220;Top Five Business Book I&#8217;ve Ever Read&#8221;<\/em><\/strong><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"tcb-flex-col\" data-css=\"tve-u-18b3c98d775\" style=\"\"><div class=\"tcb-col\"><div class=\"thrv_wrapper tve_image_caption tcb-mobile-hidden\" data-css=\"tve-u-18b3c8cea45\" style=\"\"><span class=\"tve_image_frame\" style=\"\"><a href=\"https:\/\/a.co\/d\/erDUmiQ\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\" nofollow\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"tve_image wp-image-2543 lazyload\" alt=\"\" data-id=\"2543\" width=\"136\" data-init-width=\"306\" height=\"178\" data-init-height=\"400\" title=\"evidence Guided cover transaprent small\" loading=\"lazy\" data-src=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/evidence-Guided-cover-transaprent-small.png\" data-width=\"136\" data-height=\"178\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 136px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 136\/178;aspect-ratio: auto 306 \/ 400;\" ml-d=\"0\" data-css=\"tve-u-18b3c8cea46\" center-h-d=\"false\" ml-t=\"-48\" ml-m=\"-63\" mt-d=\"0\" data-link-wrap=\"1\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/evidence-Guided-cover-transaprent-small.png 306w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/evidence-Guided-cover-transaprent-small-230x300.png 230w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 136px) 100vw, 136px\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" \/><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"tve_image wp-image-2543\" alt=\"\" data-id=\"2543\" width=\"136\" data-init-width=\"306\" height=\"178\" data-init-height=\"400\" title=\"evidence Guided cover transaprent small\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/evidence-Guided-cover-transaprent-small.png\" data-width=\"136\" data-height=\"178\" style=\"aspect-ratio: auto 306 \/ 400;\" ml-d=\"0\" data-css=\"tve-u-18b3c8cea46\" center-h-d=\"false\" ml-t=\"-48\" ml-m=\"-63\" mt-d=\"0\" data-link-wrap=\"1\" srcset=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/evidence-Guided-cover-transaprent-small.png 306w, https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/evidence-Guided-cover-transaprent-small-230x300.png 230w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 136px) 100vw, 136px\" \/><\/noscript><\/a><\/span><\/div><div class=\"tcb-clear\" data-css=\"tve-u-18b3ca35f26\"><div class=\"thrv_wrapper tve_image_caption tve_ea_thrive_animation tve_anim_fade_in\" data-css=\"tve-u-18b3c8cea48\" style=\"\"><span class=\"tve_image_frame\" style=\"\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"tve_image wp-image-2548 tcb-moved-image tve_evt_manager_listen tve_et_tve-viewport tve-viewport-triggered lazyload\" alt=\"\" data-id=\"2548\" width=\"90\" data-init-width=\"170\" height=\"19\" data-init-height=\"35\" title=\"Stars 4.8\" loading=\"lazy\" data-src=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Stars-4.8.jpg\" data-width=\"90\" data-height=\"19\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 90px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 90\/19;aspect-ratio: auto 170 \/ 35;\" data-css=\"tve-u-18b3c8cea49\" mt-d=\"-0.2557000000000009\" ml-d=\"0\" data-tcb-events=\"__TCB_EVENT_[{&quot;t&quot;:&quot;tve-viewport&quot;,&quot;config&quot;:{&quot;anim&quot;:&quot;fade_in&quot;,&quot;loop&quot;:0},&quot;a&quot;:&quot;thrive_animation&quot;}]_TNEVE_BCT__\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\"><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"tve_image wp-image-2548 tcb-moved-image tve_evt_manager_listen tve_et_tve-viewport tve-viewport-triggered\" alt=\"\" data-id=\"2548\" width=\"90\" data-init-width=\"170\" height=\"19\" data-init-height=\"35\" title=\"Stars 4.8\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Stars-4.8.jpg\" data-width=\"90\" data-height=\"19\" style=\"aspect-ratio: auto 170 \/ 35;\" data-css=\"tve-u-18b3c8cea49\" mt-d=\"-0.2557000000000009\" ml-d=\"0\" data-tcb-events=\"__TCB_EVENT_[{&quot;t&quot;:&quot;tve-viewport&quot;,&quot;config&quot;:{&quot;anim&quot;:&quot;fade_in&quot;,&quot;loop&quot;:0},&quot;a&quot;:&quot;thrive_animation&quot;}]_TNEVE_BCT__\"><\/noscript><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"thrive-group-edit-config\" style=\"display: none !important\"><\/div><div class=\"thrive-local-colors-config\" style=\"display: none !important\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A common question I get is when it is ok to stop validating a product idea and switch to delivery. It\u2019s a natural question given the pressure product teams face to execute and launch. It&#8217;s also an important question. If we stop too early we may end up launching a bad idea (we&#8217;ve all been [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1693,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[59,21,86,29],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>How Much Product Discovery Is Enough? - Itamar Gilad<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"When can you stop testing an idea and start implementing it? The answer is less obvious than it seems, and relies on risk levels and evidence.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/how-much-product-discovery\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How Much Product Discovery Is Enough? - Itamar Gilad\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"When can you stop testing an idea and start implementing it? 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