{"id":2045,"date":"2022-12-15T11:13:24","date_gmt":"2022-12-15T11:13:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/?p=2045"},"modified":"2023-08-16T08:35:23","modified_gmt":"2023-08-16T08:35:23","slug":"false-predictability","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/itamargilad.com\/false-predictability\/","title":{"rendered":"The Illusion of False Predictability"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

I recently met a product team, let’s call it Team Red, who is developing a new product in an established, traditional industry. On the surface Team Red has it all: it is cross-functional, fully-staffed, well-funded, working towards clear business goals, and is empowered to make decisions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And yet as we sat down to talk, I sensed that something about the project made the leaders of team Red quite uneasy. The polished slide deck communicated all is good, but the problem revealed itself when I asked this question:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Do you think you have found product\/market fit? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The answer was a resounding No. The team leads didn\u2019t even have to think too hard \u2014 they knew full well, and they looked genuinely relieved being able to admit this unspoken truth to someone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why Product\/Market Fit Matters<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The term Product\/Market Fit, or PMF, was invented by VCs to describe a major milestone in the life of a startup. Internet pioneer and mega-investor Marc Andreessen explained the concept in a famous article<\/a>: PMF is first and foremost about finding a “good market” \u2014 a market that has strong and clear underserved needs, and  that is either already big or growing. Creating a product that satisfies the needs of the market will lead to product\/market fit, but the product doesn’t have to be great (at least not initially), it just has to “basically work”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The concept was invented both to evaluate startups and to guide them. Before PMF it\u2019s best to conserve cash and have a very small team work quickly to discover the market and the product that fits it. Once PMF is found (and that\u2019s much harder said than done) it\u2019s time to switch gears and capture the opportunity. This is the right time to raise money and hire engineers and designers, and iterate quickly to build missing features and capabilities. In parallel the company will work to discover a business model, and start hiring its first marketing and Sales people. When the company has both product\/market fit and a scalable business model it should move into growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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